A 32-year-old woman acutely develops high fever, hypotension, and rash. This is followed by vomiting, diarrhea, confusion, and abdominal pain. In the hospital, evidence of multiorgan failure develops. Desquamation of the skin occurs 1 week after the acute illness. On further history, the illness started 3 days after the onset of menstruation. Which of the following is the most likely diagnosis?